DiffCrime: A Multimodal Conditional Diffusion Model for Crime Risk Map Inference

Crime risk map plays a crucial role in urban planning and public security management. Traditionally, it is obtained solely from historical crime incidents or inferred from limited environmental factors, which are not sufficient to accurately model the occurrences of crimes over the geographical space well. Motivated by the impressive and realistic conditional generating power of diffusion models, in this paper, we propose a multimodal conditional diffusion method, namely, DiffCrime, to infer the crime risk map based on datasets in various domains, i.e., historical crime incidents, satellite imagery, and map imagery. It is equipped with a history-gated multimodal denoising network, i.e., HamNet, dedicated to the crime risk map inference. HamNet emphasizes the importance of historical crime data via a Gated-based History Fusion (GHF) module and adaptively controls multimodal conditions to be fused across different diffusion time steps via a Time step-Aware Modality Fusion (TAMF) module. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of DiffCrime, which outperforms baselines by at least 43% and 31% in terms of RMSE, respectively.