Oil Price Factors: Forecasting on the Base of Modified ARIMA Model

Anthony Msafiri Nyangarika, Bao Jun Tang

    Research output: Contribution to journalConference articlepeer-review

    6 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    The paper proposes the modification of ARIMA model for finding the parameters of estimation and forecasts using exponential smoothing. The study use data Brent crude oil price and gas prices in the period from January 1991 to December 2016. The result of the study showed an improvement in the accuracy of the predicted values, while the emissions occurred near the end of the time series. It has minimal or no effect on other emissions of this data series. The study suggests that investors can predict prices by analyzing the possible risks in oil futures markets.

    Original languageEnglish
    Article number012058
    JournalIOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
    Volume192
    Issue number1
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 5 Nov 2018
    Event2018 2nd International Conference on Power and Energy Engineering, ICPEE 2018 - Xiamen, China
    Duration: 3 Sept 20185 Sept 2018

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