Model-based robust prediction of cumulative participant curve in large-scale events

Dixin Luo; Rong Xie; Jia Wang; Wenjun Zhang

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-34595-1_53

Model-based robust prediction of cumulative participant curve in large-scale events

Dixin Luo^*, Rong Xie, Jia Wang, Wenjun Zhang

^*Corresponding author for this work

Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a robust piecewise parametric model for predicting the cumulative number of participants in large-scale events. Based on the analysis of arriving patterns in such events, we establish parametric models for different periods and design an efficient fitting strategy to achieve model parameters from incomplete current data. Moreover, based on historical data, we can train parameters by neural network and get relation prior among parameters and data. With the help of relation prior, we can update the parameters of current data and achieve robust prediction for outlier. Simulation results on the database of Expo 2010 Shanghai show the good performance of our proposed method even in abnormal situations.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Advances on Digital Television and Wireless Multimedia Communications - 9th International Forum on Digital TV and Wireless Multimedia Communication, IFTC 2012, Proceedings
Pages	390-395
Number of pages	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-34595-1_53
Publication status	Published - 2012
Externally published	Yes
Event	9th International Forum on Digital TV and Wireless Multimedia Communication, IFTC 2012 - Shanghai, China Duration: 9 Nov 2012 → 10 Nov 2012

Publication series

Name	Communications in Computer and Information Science
Volume	331 CCI
ISSN (Print)	1865-0929

Conference

Conference	9th International Forum on Digital TV and Wireless Multimedia Communication, IFTC 2012
Country/Territory	China
City	Shanghai
Period	9/11/12 → 10/11/12

Keywords

large-scale event
piecewise parametric model
relation prior
robust prediction

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-642-34595-1_53

Cite this

Luo, D., Xie, R., Wang, J., & Zhang, W. (2012). Model-based robust prediction of cumulative participant curve in large-scale events. In Advances on Digital Television and Wireless Multimedia Communications - 9th International Forum on Digital TV and Wireless Multimedia Communication, IFTC 2012, Proceedings (pp. 390-395). (Communications in Computer and Information Science; Vol. 331 CCI). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-34595-1_53

Luo, Dixin ; Xie, Rong ; Wang, Jia et al. / Model-based robust prediction of cumulative participant curve in large-scale events. Advances on Digital Television and Wireless Multimedia Communications - 9th International Forum on Digital TV and Wireless Multimedia Communication, IFTC 2012, Proceedings. 2012. pp. 390-395 (Communications in Computer and Information Science).

@inproceedings{5b150e7dcbce49338175cebd79dbf100,

title = "Model-based robust prediction of cumulative participant curve in large-scale events",

abstract = "In this paper, we propose a robust piecewise parametric model for predicting the cumulative number of participants in large-scale events. Based on the analysis of arriving patterns in such events, we establish parametric models for different periods and design an efficient fitting strategy to achieve model parameters from incomplete current data. Moreover, based on historical data, we can train parameters by neural network and get relation prior among parameters and data. With the help of relation prior, we can update the parameters of current data and achieve robust prediction for outlier. Simulation results on the database of Expo 2010 Shanghai show the good performance of our proposed method even in abnormal situations.",

keywords = "large-scale event, piecewise parametric model, relation prior, robust prediction",

author = "Dixin Luo and Rong Xie and Jia Wang and Wenjun Zhang",

year = "2012",

doi = "10.1007/978-3-642-34595-1_53",

language = "English",

isbn = "9783642345944",

series = "Communications in Computer and Information Science",

pages = "390--395",

booktitle = "Advances on Digital Television and Wireless Multimedia Communications - 9th International Forum on Digital TV and Wireless Multimedia Communication, IFTC 2012, Proceedings",

note = "9th International Forum on Digital TV and Wireless Multimedia Communication, IFTC 2012 ; Conference date: 09-11-2012 Through 10-11-2012",

}

Luo, D, Xie, R, Wang, J & Zhang, W 2012, Model-based robust prediction of cumulative participant curve in large-scale events. in Advances on Digital Television and Wireless Multimedia Communications - 9th International Forum on Digital TV and Wireless Multimedia Communication, IFTC 2012, Proceedings. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol. 331 CCI, pp. 390-395, 9th International Forum on Digital TV and Wireless Multimedia Communication, IFTC 2012, Shanghai, China, 9/11/12. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-34595-1_53

Model-based robust prediction of cumulative participant curve in large-scale events. / Luo, Dixin; Xie, Rong; Wang, Jia et al.
Advances on Digital Television and Wireless Multimedia Communications - 9th International Forum on Digital TV and Wireless Multimedia Communication, IFTC 2012, Proceedings. 2012. p. 390-395 (Communications in Computer and Information Science; Vol. 331 CCI).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Model-based robust prediction of cumulative participant curve in large-scale events

AU - Luo, Dixin

AU - Xie, Rong

AU - Wang, Jia

AU - Zhang, Wenjun

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - In this paper, we propose a robust piecewise parametric model for predicting the cumulative number of participants in large-scale events. Based on the analysis of arriving patterns in such events, we establish parametric models for different periods and design an efficient fitting strategy to achieve model parameters from incomplete current data. Moreover, based on historical data, we can train parameters by neural network and get relation prior among parameters and data. With the help of relation prior, we can update the parameters of current data and achieve robust prediction for outlier. Simulation results on the database of Expo 2010 Shanghai show the good performance of our proposed method even in abnormal situations.

AB - In this paper, we propose a robust piecewise parametric model for predicting the cumulative number of participants in large-scale events. Based on the analysis of arriving patterns in such events, we establish parametric models for different periods and design an efficient fitting strategy to achieve model parameters from incomplete current data. Moreover, based on historical data, we can train parameters by neural network and get relation prior among parameters and data. With the help of relation prior, we can update the parameters of current data and achieve robust prediction for outlier. Simulation results on the database of Expo 2010 Shanghai show the good performance of our proposed method even in abnormal situations.

KW - large-scale event

KW - piecewise parametric model

KW - relation prior

KW - robust prediction

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84868126122&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/978-3-642-34595-1_53

DO - 10.1007/978-3-642-34595-1_53

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:84868126122

SN - 9783642345944

T3 - Communications in Computer and Information Science

SP - 390

EP - 395

BT - Advances on Digital Television and Wireless Multimedia Communications - 9th International Forum on Digital TV and Wireless Multimedia Communication, IFTC 2012, Proceedings

T2 - 9th International Forum on Digital TV and Wireless Multimedia Communication, IFTC 2012

Y2 - 9 November 2012 through 10 November 2012

ER -

Luo D, Xie R, Wang J, Zhang W. Model-based robust prediction of cumulative participant curve in large-scale events. In Advances on Digital Television and Wireless Multimedia Communications - 9th International Forum on Digital TV and Wireless Multimedia Communication, IFTC 2012, Proceedings. 2012. p. 390-395. (Communications in Computer and Information Science). doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-34595-1_53

Model-based robust prediction of cumulative participant curve in large-scale events

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