TY - JOUR
T1 - SARS-Cov-2 trajectory predictions and scenario simulations from a global perspective
T2 - a modelling study
AU - Yang, Tianan
AU - Liu, Yexin
AU - Deng, Wenhao
AU - Zhao, Weigang
AU - Deng, Jianwei
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, The Author(s).
PY - 2020/12/1
Y1 - 2020/12/1
N2 - The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 emerging from Wuhan, China has developed into a global epidemic. Here, we combine both human mobility and non-pharmaceutical interventions (social-distancing and suspected-cases isolation) into SEIR transmission model to understand how coronavirus transmits in a global environment. Dynamic trends of region-specific time-variant reproduction number, social-distancing rate, work-resumption rate, and suspected-cases isolation rate have been estimated and plotted for each region by fitting stochastic transmission processes to the real total confirmed cases reported of each region. We find after shutdown in Wuhan, the reproduction number in Wuhan greatly declined from 6·982 (95% CI 2·558–14·668) on January 23rd, 2020 to 1.130 (95% CI 0.289–3.279) on February 7th, 2020, and there was a higher intervention level in terms of social-distancing and suspected-cases isolation in Wuhan than the Chinese average and Western average, for the period from the shutdown in Wuhan to mid-March. Future epidemic trajectories of Western countries up to October 10th, 2020, have been predicted with 95% confidence intervals. Through the scenario simulation, we discover the benefits of earlier international travel ban and rigorous intervention strategies, and the significance of non-pharmaceutical interventions. From a global perspective, it is vital for each country to control the risks of imported cases, and execute rigorous non-pharmaceutical interventions before successful vaccination development.
AB - The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 emerging from Wuhan, China has developed into a global epidemic. Here, we combine both human mobility and non-pharmaceutical interventions (social-distancing and suspected-cases isolation) into SEIR transmission model to understand how coronavirus transmits in a global environment. Dynamic trends of region-specific time-variant reproduction number, social-distancing rate, work-resumption rate, and suspected-cases isolation rate have been estimated and plotted for each region by fitting stochastic transmission processes to the real total confirmed cases reported of each region. We find after shutdown in Wuhan, the reproduction number in Wuhan greatly declined from 6·982 (95% CI 2·558–14·668) on January 23rd, 2020 to 1.130 (95% CI 0.289–3.279) on February 7th, 2020, and there was a higher intervention level in terms of social-distancing and suspected-cases isolation in Wuhan than the Chinese average and Western average, for the period from the shutdown in Wuhan to mid-March. Future epidemic trajectories of Western countries up to October 10th, 2020, have been predicted with 95% confidence intervals. Through the scenario simulation, we discover the benefits of earlier international travel ban and rigorous intervention strategies, and the significance of non-pharmaceutical interventions. From a global perspective, it is vital for each country to control the risks of imported cases, and execute rigorous non-pharmaceutical interventions before successful vaccination development.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85094135337&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41598-020-75332-x
DO - 10.1038/s41598-020-75332-x
M3 - Article
C2 - 33110114
AN - SCOPUS:85094135337
SN - 2045-2322
VL - 10
JO - Scientific Reports
JF - Scientific Reports
IS - 1
M1 - 18319
ER -