TY - GEN
T1 - ARIMA model estimated by particle swarm optimization algorithm for consumer price index forecasting
AU - Wang, Hongjie
AU - Zhao, Weigang
PY - 2009
Y1 - 2009
N2 - This paper presents an ARIMA model which uses particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) for model estimation. Because the traditional estimation method is complex and may obtain very bad results, PSO which can be implemented with ease and has a powerful optimizing performance is employed to optimize the coefficients of ARIMA. In recent years, inflation and deflation plague the world moreover the consumer price index (CPI) which is a measure of the average price of consumer goods and services purchased by households is usually observed as an important indicator of the level of inflation, so the forecast of CPI has been focused on by both scientific community and relevant authorities. Furthermore, taking the forecast of CPI as a case, we illustrate the improvement of accuracy and efficiency of the new method and the result shows it is predominant in forecasting.
AB - This paper presents an ARIMA model which uses particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) for model estimation. Because the traditional estimation method is complex and may obtain very bad results, PSO which can be implemented with ease and has a powerful optimizing performance is employed to optimize the coefficients of ARIMA. In recent years, inflation and deflation plague the world moreover the consumer price index (CPI) which is a measure of the average price of consumer goods and services purchased by households is usually observed as an important indicator of the level of inflation, so the forecast of CPI has been focused on by both scientific community and relevant authorities. Furthermore, taking the forecast of CPI as a case, we illustrate the improvement of accuracy and efficiency of the new method and the result shows it is predominant in forecasting.
KW - ARIMA model
KW - Consumer price index
KW - Moment estimation
KW - Particle swarm optimization algorithm
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=71549129522&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/978-3-642-05253-8_6
DO - 10.1007/978-3-642-05253-8_6
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:71549129522
SN - 3642052525
SN - 9783642052521
T3 - Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
SP - 48
EP - 58
BT - Artificial Intelligence and Computational Intelligence - International Conference, AICI 2009, Proceedings
T2 - International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Computational Intelligence, AICI 2009
Y2 - 7 November 2009 through 8 November 2009
ER -