Security or cost: A study on the optimization of China's crude oil import portfolio based on “data-driven-scenario” analysis

“How to select the best partners” is an important decision for oil importing countries to ensure their energy security. However, amid global changes of a magnitude not seen in a century, decision making is something involving high uncertainty and high complexity. In this paper, linking data with empirical logic and expert judgment, fundamentals such as China's import demand for crude oils of different quality, export capacity of resource countries, and trade price are reviewed; and non-fundamentals such as international sanctions, diplomatic relations, channel risk, and investment cooperation are modeled with crude oil trade in globalization and bloc confrontation scenarios. On this basis, a model system for the optimization of China's crude oil import portfolio based on data-driven scenario analysis is built, which can be served as an effective tool to support decision making. The study shows that China should focus on four regions: countries surrounding China, the Gulf States, the Amazon countries of South America, and central and western Africa. In particular, in order to realize China's oil supply security in the scenario of Bloc Confrontation, in addition to Russia, Iran and Venezuela, China should pay more attention to Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Angola, Guyana and Colombia.