Research on the risk factor estimate method of the model project

According to the definition of risk, the risk of a model project was synthetically analyzed. The risk estimate method of the model project was set up based on the experts' subjective estimation on the likelihood and severity of risk event. The factor P_f and C_f was defined by using the methods of hierarchy process and the fuzzy synthetical estimation. After getting the risk value of every part system project, the risk factors could be measured in grads by using project disassembled structure, and the risk degree of a model project could be quantificationally showed. The research showed the optimization and science decision-making of a model project can be achieved based on the risk degree analysis.