Quantifying trade-related carbon emission in China's provinces: Insight from sectoral production technology heterogeneity

Regional trade not only promotes economic growth but also induces inter-regional transfer of carbon emissions. To realistically evaluate the effect of regional trade on carbon emissions, this study investigates the impact of carbon intensity heterogeneity in bilateral trade sectors on regional carbon emissions based on the emission responsibility allotment principle, establishing a credit and penalty mechanism. The key points for improvement in carbon efficiency are identified from regional and sectoral perspectives to promote carbon emission reduction through bilateral trade adjustment. The results demonstrate superior trade performance in developed regions than that in less developed regions, as the former has reduced emissions (44 Mt) and emissions by the latter have increased (54 Mt). From the perspective of emission reduction, Jiangsu should increase trade with Hubei and reduce trade with Guangdong. At the sectoral level, Jilin should increase trade in the scientific research sector (9 Mt), while Jiangsu should increase trade in the construction sector (8 Mt). Moreover, the key point of sectoral carbon efficiency improvement in each region are identified using sensitivity analysis. By analyzing the impact of bilateral trade on regional carbon emission from the heterogeneity of carbon intensity in China's inter-provincial trade sector, this study provides support for strategic policymaking and collaborative regional emissions reduction to promote the advancement of China's carbon neutralization goals.