Monte-Carlo analysis of the projectile fragments from cylindrical tank boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion accident

The generation and flight of fragments are stochastic and can cause more severe hazards. Studying on the domino effect study caused by the fragments from explosion is hotspot and difficulty. Based on dynamic analysis, the present work extended the two-dimensional fragment trajectory equation into three-dimensional system, and took wind into account. The present analysis took a cylindrical tank in Mexico City with boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion as an example, and the trajectory of fragment was simulated by Monte-Carlo method. Seen from the probabilities of fragment ranges to be reached with/without wind, wind has less impact on the hazard caused by fragments. The impact probability of a fragment on a target with no wind was attained, impact probability with the tank showed the increase of distance between the strict exponential decay trend, and through this relationship, the tank spacing in compliance with safety requirements can be calculated. The paper provides a method which is of great significance for the risk assessment and control of fragments from the explosion of cylindrical tanks.