Reliability estimation of aviation pyrotechnics system based on mixed beta distribution

For evaluating reliability of an aviation pyrotechnics system, a Bayesian reliability estimation method utilizing reliability information of a system and its units was put forward. Firstly, an inheritance factor was determined by chi-square goodness of fit test. Then the mixed prior distribution was obtained based on the inheritance factor. Finally, the density function of posterior distribution was obtained and used to assess the reliability of system. According to the new method, the reliability of an aviation pyrotechnics system was evaluated to reach 0.989 6 at the confidence level of 0.90. To reach the reliability index, the required numbers of trials of system and its units were given. It is instructional to apply the new method on the reliability estimation of aviation pyrotechnics systems.