Physical inability rather than depression and cognitive impairment had negative effect on centenarian prognosis: A prospective study with 5-year follow-up

Aim: Scarce study has involved the effects of physical inability, depression and cognitive impairment on the prognosis of older individuals, especially in Chinese centenarians. This prospective study was designed to investigate the effects with 5-year follow-up in Chinese centenarians. Methods: According to the list of centenarians provided by Department of Civil Affairs, an household survey was conducted on all centenarians residing in 18 cities and counties of Hainan province. A total of 423 centenarians were followed up, including 84 survival centenarians and 261 dead centenarians, with 78 cases lost to follow-up. Results: Dead centenarians had less females and more physical inability than survival centenarians (P < 0.05 for all). Univariable Cox regression analyses indicated that physical inability [EXP(B): 2.038, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.413–2.939], urea nitrogen [EXP(B): 1.116, 95 % CI: 1.039–1.199], and creatinine [EXP(B): 1.006, 95 % CI: 1.001–1.012] had negative effects on the prognosis of centenarians (all P < 0.05). Gender [EXP(B): 0.606, 95 % CI: 0.391–1.940] and albumin [EXP(B): 0.939, 95 % CI: 0.896–0.985] had positive effects on the prognosis of centenarians (all P < 0.05). Multivariable Cox regression analysis indicated that physical inability [EXP(B): 2.148, 95 % CI: 1.454–3.173] and urea nitrogen [EXP(B): 1.114, 95 % CI: 1.020–1.216] had negative effects on the prognosis of centenarians (all P < 0.05). Conclusions: For Chinese centenarians, this prospective study demonstrated that physical inability rather than depression and cognitive impairment had negative effect on the long-term mortality rate and survival time. This result suggested that in order to improve the prognosis of older adults, it could be mainly achieved by improving physical ability.