Performance reliability evaluation of explosive initiator based on Bayes-Bootstrap method

As the first component of weapon, ammunition, aerospace and other systems, improving the accuracy of performance reliability evaluation of small sample explosive initiator is very important for its reliability evaluation and life evaluation. In order to improve the performance reliability evaluation accuracy of explosive initiators with small samples, this paper proposes a performance reliability evaluation method based on Bayes-Bootstrap method. The proposed method increases the sample size by simulation sampling, and reduces the repetition rate of sampling data by randomly weighting the simulating samples, and improves the accuracy of parameter estimation, and finally improves the accuracy of the performance reliability evaluation of explosive initiators with small samples. Finally, Mont-Carlo simulation and case analysis are carried out, and the results show that the proposed method is superior to the commonly used methods for performance reliability evaluation in engineering when the sample size is less than 20, and the proposed method can achieve better accuracy.