News-driven stock prediction via noisy equity state representation

News-driven stock prediction investigates the correlation between news events and stock price movements. Previous work has considered effective ways for representing news events and their sequences, but rarely exploited the representation of underlying equity states. We address this issue by making use of a recurrent neural network to represent an equity state transition sequence, integrating news representation using contextualized representations as inputs to the state transition mechanism. Thanks to the separation of news and equity representations, our model can accommodate additional input factors. We design a novel random noise factor for modeling influencing factors beyond news events, and a future event factor to address the delay of news information (e.g., insider trading) and reduce the learning difficulties. Results show that the proposed model outperforms strong baselines in the literature.