Environmental Kuznets curve for PM_2.5 emissions in Beijing, China: What role can natural gas consumption play?

Beijing has been the fastest-growing megacity in China, however it faced severe air pollution in recent years, particularly the notorious fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). In response, Beijing increased the use of natural gas since 2008; therefore, natural gas consumption (NGC) soared rapidly, accounting for over 30% of total energy need in 2016. This study explores the long- and short-run effects of NGC on PM_2.5 emissions within the framework of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in Beijing by employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. To do this, the long-term and monthly PM_2.5 data based on ground monitoring are used for the period of April 2008 through December 2016 (2008 M04-2016 M12). The empirical results suggest, in the long run, an inverted U-shaped EKC link exists between PM_2.5 emissions and per capita gross domestic product (GDP); with 16,973 yuan for per capita monthly GDP, the EKC will reach its peak. Although the NGC in Beijing can mitigate PM_2.5 emissions in both the long run and short run, its mitigation effect would be weakened over time. Furthermore, increasing vehicle quantity would lead to higher concentrations of PM_2.5, whereas the proportion of tertiary industry exerts a negative effect on PM_2.5 in Beijing. At the end of the article, several key policy implications are highlighted both for mitigating PM_2.5 and for promoting growth in natural gas industry in Beijing.