Coupled coordination and pathway analysis of food security and carbon emission efficiency under climate-smart agriculture orientation

Owing to the contradiction between agricultural production and environmental development, the issues of food security and carbon mitigation cannot be isolated, and achieving coupled and coordinated development is the key to agricultural sustainability. This study adopted the coupled coordination model and dynamic qualitative comparative analysis (dynamic QCA) method to measure the coupled coordination degree (CCD) of the food security index (FSI) and agricultural carbon emission efficiency (ACEE) in 31 provinces of China from 2010 to 2021, seeking paths to achieve high coupled coordination from Climate-Smart Agriculture technology, external environment, and incentive dimensions, and simulating path selection differences under various CSA priority scenarios. The results indicated that the CCD of the FSI and ACEE in China significantly increased year-on-year increase, with significant regional differences primarily reflected in the Northeast > East > West > Central regions. Based on the CSA orientation, the “technology-environmental safeguard” linkage path and the “technology-environment-incentive” hybrid path are proposed. There are differences in CSA practices across regions, which require customization based on their unique socioeconomic, ecological, and political landscapes. When priorities favour food security, the “technology-environment-incentive” hybrid pathway supports high CCD, and as priorities increase, the contribution of CSA technologies, centred on water-saving irrigation, increases and the role of the external environment diminishes. When the priority tendency is to mitigate emissions, both paths can achieve high CCD. As the priority tendency for carbon emissions increases, urbanisation and CSA technologies such as water-saving irrigation and straw return become essential factors contributing to higher coupling coordination, and the role of agriculture-related financial expenditures diminishes. These findings provide policy support for safeguarding food security and low-carbon agriculture.