Assessing the efforts of coal phaseout for carbon neutrality in China

As the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, coal phaseout is critical for China to achieve carbon neutrality and contribute to global decarbonization. Here, utilizing the Global Change Assessment Model, this paper simulates China's coal phaseout pathways at the sectoral level between 2015 and 2060, considering the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). The results show that China's coal consumption peaks at 96.4 Exajoules (EJ) in approximately 2020 and needs to decrease to 10.9 EJ by 2060 to achieve carbon neutrality. Specifically, the power sector bears the most significant proportion of responsibility, as its coal consumption must fall to 1.4 EJ by 2060, which is approximately 97.2% lower than the peak in 2020. The industrial sector is next and needs to decrease consumption to 9.2 EJ of coal in 2060, which is a reduction of 32.3 EJ below the 2020 level. Electricity will replace coal as the dominant energy source in the industrial sector after 2040. However, a portion of feed coal will remain in the industry for a long time. Among the industrial subsectors, the steel sector needs to put significant pressure on efforts to phase out coal, followed by the cement and nitrogen fertilizer sectors. In 2060, these three sectors will consume 5.7 EJ of coal, accounting for 64.1% of the total coal consumption in the industrial sector. The deployment of coal-CCS is one of the alternatives to achieve carbon neutrality and ensure smooth coal phaseout. Under the carbon neutrality scenario, the annual deployment of coal-CCS needs to exceed 0.13 EJ from 2025 to 2045, with a peak at 3.3 EJ in 2045.