基于系统动力学的北京供需水关系仿真研究

Beijing is a metropolis and the center of politics and education of China. However, located in the region with a low level of rainfall, Beijing has been struggling with supplying water resources to meet its growing demand. The past and future trend of the water supply and demand balance in Beijing is studied. Historical data is collected and compiled for learning its past behaviors. The system dynamics (SD) modeling can simulate the complicated and integrated relationships in water supply and demand system. An SD model is then constructed based on compiled historical data. The SD model is validated by comparing simulated data with historical data before it is used for forecasting future changes in the water balance of the city.