TY - JOUR
T1 - Topic analysis and forecasting for science, technology and innovation
T2 - Methodology with a case study focusing on big data research
AU - Zhang, Yi
AU - Zhang, Guangquan
AU - Chen, Hongshu
AU - Porter, Alan L.
AU - Zhu, Donghua
AU - Lu, Jie
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Elsevier Inc.
PY - 2016/4/1
Y1 - 2016/4/1
N2 - The number and extent of current Science, Technology & Innovation topics are changing all the time, and their induced accumulative innovation, or even disruptive revolution, will heavily influence the whole of society in the near future. By addressing and predicting these changes, this paper proposes an analytic method to (1) cluster associated terms and phrases to constitute meaningful technological topics and their interactions, and (2) identify changing topical emphases. Our results are carried forward to present mechanisms that forecast prospective developments using Technology Roadmapping, combining qualitative and quantitative methodologies. An empirical case study of Awards data from the United States National Science Foundation, Division of Computer and Communication Foundation, is performed to demonstrate the proposed method. The resulting knowledge may hold interest for R&D management and science policy in practice.
AB - The number and extent of current Science, Technology & Innovation topics are changing all the time, and their induced accumulative innovation, or even disruptive revolution, will heavily influence the whole of society in the near future. By addressing and predicting these changes, this paper proposes an analytic method to (1) cluster associated terms and phrases to constitute meaningful technological topics and their interactions, and (2) identify changing topical emphases. Our results are carried forward to present mechanisms that forecast prospective developments using Technology Roadmapping, combining qualitative and quantitative methodologies. An empirical case study of Awards data from the United States National Science Foundation, Division of Computer and Communication Foundation, is performed to demonstrate the proposed method. The resulting knowledge may hold interest for R&D management and science policy in practice.
KW - Technical intelligence
KW - Technological forecasting
KW - Text clustering
KW - Text mining
KW - Topic analysis
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84978010449&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.01.015
DO - 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.01.015
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84978010449
SN - 0040-1625
VL - 105
SP - 179
EP - 191
JO - Technological Forecasting and Social Change
JF - Technological Forecasting and Social Change
ER -