The challenge to NOx emission control for heavy-duty diesel vehicles in China

China's new "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" set a target for total NOx emission reduction of 10% for the period of 2011-2015. Heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs) have been considered a major contributor to NOx emissions in China. Beijing initiated a comprehensive vehicle test program in 2008. This program included a sub-task for measuring on-road emission profiles of hundreds of HDDVs using portable emission measurement systems (PEMS). The major finding is that neither the on-road distance-specific (g kmĝ̂'1) nor brake-specific (g kWhĝ̂'1) NOx emission factors for diesel buses and heavy-duty diesel trucks improved in most cases as emission standards became more stringent. For example, the average NOx emission factors for Euro II, Euro III and Euro IV buses are 11.3 ± 3.3 g kmĝ̂'1, 12.5 ± 1.3 g kmĝ̂'1, and 11.8 ± 2.0 g kmĝ̂'1, respectively. No statistically significant difference in NOx emission factors was observed between Euro II and III buses. Even for Euro IV buses equipped with SCR systems, the NOx emission factors are similar to Euro III buses. The data regarding real-time engine performance of Euro IV buses suggest the engine certification cycles did not reflect their real-world operating conditions. These new on-road test results indicate that previous estimates of total NOx emissions for HDDV fleet may be significantly underestimated. The new estimate in total NOx emissions for the Beijing HDDV fleet in 2009 is 37.0 Gg, an increase of 45% compared to the previous study. Further, we estimate that the total NOx emissions for the national HDDV fleet in 2009 are approximately 4.0 Tg, higher by 1.0 Tg (equivalent to 18% of total NOx emissions for vehicle fleet in 2009) than that estimated in the official report. This would also result in 4% increase in estimation of national anthropogenic NOx emissions. More effective control measures (such as promotion of CNG buses and a new in-use compliance testing program) are urged to secure the goal of total NOx mitigation for the HDDV fleet in the future.