TY - JOUR
T1 - Technological development pathway for a low-carbon primary aluminum industry in China
AU - Yu, Biying
AU - Zhao, Zihao
AU - Zhang, Shuai
AU - An, Runying
AU - Chen, Jingming
AU - Li, Ru
AU - Zhao, Guangpu
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Elsevier Inc.
PY - 2021/12
Y1 - 2021/12
N2 - China is the world's largest producer of primary aluminum and its production will continue to grow in the future. It is very important to optimize the technological development pathway for the low-carbon transition of primary aluminum industry given its continuing increasing energy consumption and carbon emissions. To that end, this study develops a bottom-up model, named National Energy Technology- Aluminum (NET-AL) model. The energy saving potential for three types of strategies are evaluated, including eliminating backward-production capacity, promoting advanced technology, and optimizing industry power structure. The key results are as follows: (1) All emission reduction strategies indicate that CO2 emissions could peak in 2025, and the cumulative emission reduction potential is 5.3% by 2050; (2) The advanced technologies have significant effects on energy saving. The role of promoting seven-effect tube evaporation technology and energy-saving combination technology of new conductivity structure are emphasized. Optimizing the power structure can effectively reduce indirect CO2 emissions, in which the largest penetration of hydropower-aluminum joint production is suggested to be 6.5%; (3) The joint impacts of the discussed three strategies, could not only lead to energy saving, but also brings economic benefits for China's primary aluminum industry.
AB - China is the world's largest producer of primary aluminum and its production will continue to grow in the future. It is very important to optimize the technological development pathway for the low-carbon transition of primary aluminum industry given its continuing increasing energy consumption and carbon emissions. To that end, this study develops a bottom-up model, named National Energy Technology- Aluminum (NET-AL) model. The energy saving potential for three types of strategies are evaluated, including eliminating backward-production capacity, promoting advanced technology, and optimizing industry power structure. The key results are as follows: (1) All emission reduction strategies indicate that CO2 emissions could peak in 2025, and the cumulative emission reduction potential is 5.3% by 2050; (2) The advanced technologies have significant effects on energy saving. The role of promoting seven-effect tube evaporation technology and energy-saving combination technology of new conductivity structure are emphasized. Optimizing the power structure can effectively reduce indirect CO2 emissions, in which the largest penetration of hydropower-aluminum joint production is suggested to be 6.5%; (3) The joint impacts of the discussed three strategies, could not only lead to energy saving, but also brings economic benefits for China's primary aluminum industry.
KW - Cost-benefit
KW - Energy saving and CO emission reduction
KW - NET-AL model
KW - Power structure
KW - Primary aluminum industry
KW - Technological development pathway
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85111941710&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121052
DO - 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121052
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85111941710
SN - 0040-1625
VL - 173
JO - Technological Forecasting and Social Change
JF - Technological Forecasting and Social Change
M1 - 121052
ER -
