Simulating the economic and environmental effects of integrated policies in energy-carbon-water nexus of China

This study aims to simulate the economic and environmental effects of energy-carbon-water (ECW) policies in China. The main novelty works are to clarify the theoretical ECW nexus mechanism at macro-economic level and develop the ECW-CGE policy assessment model with ECW policy modules integrated. Using this model, isolated and integrated ECW policy scenarios are designed and simulated in 2050. Policy effectiveness and co-effects are further discussed. The main findings are: (1) For economic effects, GDP losses grow from 0.31 % in water policy scenario W1 to 1.51 % in integrated policy scenario ECW2. Energy and carbon emission policies cause greater outputs losses in energy and carbon intensive sectors, while water policy impacts stronger on agricultural and service sectors. (2) For environmental effects, integrated policy scenarios reduce the most of ECW, and isolated ones mainly affect their targeted ECW elements. (3) For policy effectiveness, isolated policy scenarios have greater individual effectiveness, integrated ones could balance overall ECW management. (4) Synergy and trade-off effects exist in all scenarios. Governance cooperation and differentiated sectoral policies are needed to realize sustainable development in ECW system. The main findings could inspire ECW management policy makings both for China and countries with similar environmental constraints.