Monte-Carlo analysis of fragments projectile from spherical tank BLEVE

Domino effect is a well-known cause of major accidents in chemical and process industries, resulting in overall consequences more severe than those of a primary event. Heat radiation, blast wave overpressure and fragment projection are three major escalation vectors. The generation and flight of fragments are stochastic and can cause more severe hazards than those by heat and overpressure. The study on the fragments from explosion is a hot topic and involves much difficulty. The present work took a spherical tank in Mexico City with boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) as an example. The probability distribution density of uncertain parameters in the generation and flight of fragment was determined by the data from reference, and simulated by the Monte-Carlo method. Then the projectile distance of fragment was calculated. On this basis, concerning the three-dimensional fragment trajectory, the influence of the target geometry and wind, the probability of impact of a fragment on the target of a known shape and at a given position with respect to the source point was obtained. It is important to assess the complex risk and hazards of fragment of spherical tank BLEVE quantitatively.