Industrial risks assessment for the large-scale development of electric arc furnace steelmaking technology

The global steel industry is accelerating the promotion of low-carbon technologies. Electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking technology is thought to be a key technology. Whereas, large-scale development of EAF technology may have substitution or enhancing effects on related industries in the production chain, thereby triggering risks such as unemployment or labor shortages and insufficient investment. However, existing studies are limited in assessing the potential risks generated by EAF technology especially from the industrial chain perspective. Therefore, this paper combines technology-specific characteristics with macroeconomic input-output (IO) tables to build up an extended IO-based hybrid model to assess quantitatively the impact of the gradual popularization of EAF technology on capital investment, labor demand and pollutant emissions in the industrial chain. Furthermore, the potential risks of EAF promotion for achieving China's carbon peak goal are evaluated. Our results indicate that, the penetration of EAF technology needs to reach 25 % by 2030, and its development would induce a cumulative net increase in capital investment of 354.5 billion CNY, employment demand of 1.5 million, and emissions of pollutants (SO₂,NO_x,PM) of 33,300 tons. Therein, new EAF production would bring about an extra capital demand of 604.8 billion CNY, and create 2.4 million new jobs. Conversely, because of the replacement of traditional technology, economic losses of 250.3 billion CNY would occur and 0.9 million workers would be surplus. Therefore, when developing EAF technology, vigilance is needed to manage risks in the industrial chain, particularly for non-metallic mineral products manufacturing, electricity and heat production and supply, coal processing, as well as recycling and processing of waste resource and material industries.