Incident duration model on urban freeways using Ordered Probit Model

Ruimin Li; Xiaoqiang Zhao; Xinxin Yu; Jianan Zhu; Junwei Li; Nan Cheng

doi:10.1109/ICICIP.2010.5564235

Incident duration model on urban freeways using Ordered Probit Model

Ruimin Li^*, Xiaoqiang Zhao, Xinxin Yu, Jianan Zhu, Junwei Li, Nan Cheng

^*Corresponding author for this work

Tsinghua University

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

Effective traffic incident management requires a full understanding of the various corresponding properties to accurately estimate incident durations and to benefit decision makings of reducing the impact of non-recurring incident relevant congestions. This paper incorporates discrete choice theory in incident duration prediction. Ordered Probit Model is employed to forecast the incident duration. All 62941 incident records from Beijing Transportation Management Bureau are used for model establishment and other 8000 records for validation. The correct estimation ratio of the model is 69.11%, which shows the reliability of the model is rather satisfactory.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010
Pages	520-522
Number of pages	3
Edition	PART 2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/ICICIP.2010.5564235
Publication status	Published - 2010
Externally published	Yes
Event	2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010 - Dalian, China Duration: 13 Aug 2010 → 15 Aug 2010

Publication series

Name	Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010
Number	PART 2

Conference

Conference	2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010
Country/Territory	China
City	Dalian
Period	13/08/10 → 15/08/10

Access to Document

10.1109/ICICIP.2010.5564235

Cite this

Li, R., Zhao, X., Yu, X., Zhu, J., Li, J., & Cheng, N. (2010). Incident duration model on urban freeways using Ordered Probit Model. In Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010 (PART 2 ed., pp. 520-522). Article 5564235 (Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010; No. PART 2). https://doi.org/10.1109/ICICIP.2010.5564235

Li, Ruimin ; Zhao, Xiaoqiang ; Yu, Xinxin et al. / Incident duration model on urban freeways using Ordered Probit Model. Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010. PART 2. ed. 2010. pp. 520-522 (Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010; PART 2).

@inproceedings{1828a8bdc1a54405a2d3734f7a2fdace,

title = "Incident duration model on urban freeways using Ordered Probit Model",

abstract = "Effective traffic incident management requires a full understanding of the various corresponding properties to accurately estimate incident durations and to benefit decision makings of reducing the impact of non-recurring incident relevant congestions. This paper incorporates discrete choice theory in incident duration prediction. Ordered Probit Model is employed to forecast the incident duration. All 62941 incident records from Beijing Transportation Management Bureau are used for model establishment and other 8000 records for validation. The correct estimation ratio of the model is 69.11%, which shows the reliability of the model is rather satisfactory.",

author = "Ruimin Li and Xiaoqiang Zhao and Xinxin Yu and Jianan Zhu and Junwei Li and Nan Cheng",

year = "2010",

doi = "10.1109/ICICIP.2010.5564235",

language = "English",

isbn = "9781424470488",

series = "Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010",

number = "PART 2",

pages = "520--522",

booktitle = "Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010",

edition = "PART 2",

note = "2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010 ; Conference date: 13-08-2010 Through 15-08-2010",

}

Li, R, Zhao, X, Yu, X, Zhu, J, Li, J & Cheng, N 2010, Incident duration model on urban freeways using Ordered Probit Model. in Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010. PART 2 edn, 5564235, Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010, no. PART 2, pp. 520-522, 2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010, Dalian, China, 13/08/10. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICICIP.2010.5564235

Incident duration model on urban freeways using Ordered Probit Model. / Li, Ruimin; Zhao, Xiaoqiang; Yu, Xinxin et al.
Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010. PART 2. ed. 2010. p. 520-522 5564235 (Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010; No. PART 2).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Incident duration model on urban freeways using Ordered Probit Model

AU - Li, Ruimin

AU - Zhao, Xiaoqiang

AU - Yu, Xinxin

AU - Zhu, Jianan

AU - Li, Junwei

AU - Cheng, Nan

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - Effective traffic incident management requires a full understanding of the various corresponding properties to accurately estimate incident durations and to benefit decision makings of reducing the impact of non-recurring incident relevant congestions. This paper incorporates discrete choice theory in incident duration prediction. Ordered Probit Model is employed to forecast the incident duration. All 62941 incident records from Beijing Transportation Management Bureau are used for model establishment and other 8000 records for validation. The correct estimation ratio of the model is 69.11%, which shows the reliability of the model is rather satisfactory.

AB - Effective traffic incident management requires a full understanding of the various corresponding properties to accurately estimate incident durations and to benefit decision makings of reducing the impact of non-recurring incident relevant congestions. This paper incorporates discrete choice theory in incident duration prediction. Ordered Probit Model is employed to forecast the incident duration. All 62941 incident records from Beijing Transportation Management Bureau are used for model establishment and other 8000 records for validation. The correct estimation ratio of the model is 69.11%, which shows the reliability of the model is rather satisfactory.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=78649237730&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1109/ICICIP.2010.5564235

DO - 10.1109/ICICIP.2010.5564235

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:78649237730

SN - 9781424470488

T3 - Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010

SP - 520

EP - 522

BT - Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010

T2 - 2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010

Y2 - 13 August 2010 through 15 August 2010

ER -

Li R, Zhao X, Yu X, Zhu J, Li J, Cheng N. Incident duration model on urban freeways using Ordered Probit Model. In Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010. PART 2 ed. 2010. p. 520-522. 5564235. (Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing, ICICIP 2010; PART 2). doi: 10.1109/ICICIP.2010.5564235

Incident duration model on urban freeways using Ordered Probit Model

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this