How does COVID-19 affect tourism in terms of people’s willingness to travel? Empirical evidence from China

Purpose: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in traveling restrictions and decreased the demand among travelers since the end of 2019. Policies and people’s behaviors are gradually changing with the increase in the number of new diagnoses of COVID-19. Tourism increases tourists’ risk of contracting COVID-19 and will undoubtedly be affected by this disease. Based on this assumption and social cognitive theory, this paper aims to explore the impact of COVID-19 on tourism in terms of people’s willingness to travel. Design/methodology/approach: Based on social cognitive theory, this study has designed the model and variables. The data of the paper came from a survey conducted in 29 provinces of China and a total of 618 responses were used for data analysis after deleting invalid questionnaires. Drawing on the structural equation modeling method, this paper processes the data collected from questionnaires to test the hypotheses and come to the results. Findings: The results indicate that the negative impact of COVID-19 will affect the severity perceptions, personal negative effects and positive effects of tourism during the outbreak, which will ultimately influence people’s willingness to travel. During the outbreak of COVID-19, impacted by environmental factors and personal factors, Chinese people’s willingness to travel has been significantly reduced. Research limitations/implications: This study mainly focuses on people’s willingness to travel and the demand side of tourism to analyze the effects of COVID-19 on tourism, which neglects the supply side of tourism for analysis. Subsequent research should take account of the supply side of tourism and expanding the sample size worldwide to determine the impact of COVID-19 on the tourism industry from a broader perspective. Originality/value: This study quantitatively analyzes how COVID-19 influenced the tourism industry and precisely determines the possible mechanism of the effect of COVID-19 on tourism by using social cognitive theory to build a model. The insights from the work help to understand how COVID-19 affects people’s willingness to travel during the pandemic and how to address this issue.