Environmental and health impacts of heating fuel transition: Evidence from Northern China

The heating season in the Northern China usually consumes massive high-polluted coal, severely threatening the ambient air pollution and human health. Therefore, the Chinese government set forth the clean heating policy in 2017, aiming to fulfill the heating fuel transition in terms of “coal to gas” or “coal to electricity”. To clarify the current progress and guide future action on clean heating, a comprehensive evaluation is indispensable. Hence, the policy effects on air quality from temporal and spatial perspectives are evaluated through a difference-in-difference model. Furthermore, the health benefits obtained from implementing a clean heating policy are estimated via an exposure-response model, the value of statistical life, and the cost of illness. The empirical results indicate that the “2 + 26” cities, defined as BTH air pollution transmission channel cities, have witnessed a significant improvement in mitigating PM_2.5 pollution. For the cities in the Fenwei Plain, a larger reduction in SO₂ and CO emissions is realized. Moreover, Tianjin and Hebei inhibit PM_2.5 pollution efficiently. In terms of the three batches of pilot cities, the policy effects on decreasing air pollutants concentrate on the first batch of pilot cities, and weaker in the second and third batches. In addition, an event study is conducted for the first batch of pilot cities to trace out the year-by-year impacts of clean heating on air pollutants, demonstrating temporal variations in the policy effects. During 2017–2019, the total health benefits induced by improved air quality have been accumulated to 7.69 billion yuan, 7.96 billion yuan, and 10 billion yuan in four provincial capital cities, including Shijiazhuang, Zhengzhou, Taiyuan, and Jinan. The multidimensional exploration of the clean heating effects on air pollution and public health supports evidence-based policymaking in China and inspires developing countries to adopt household energy transition initiatives similar to clean heating.