A new reliability assessment method for complex systems based on goal oriented methodology

This paper proposes a new reliability assessment method for complex systems based on GO method to evaluate its reliability lower confidence limit. First, the new reliability assessment method is expounded in detail, whose steps are developing GO model, collecting test data of test units and evaluating reliability lower confidence limit of complex systems. And its process is formulated. Then, the electrohydraulic control system of Power-Shift Steering Transmission (PSST) for a heavy vehicle is taken as an example to evaluate its reliability lower confidence limit by the new method. In order to verify the advantages and rationality of the new reliability assessment method, the reliability assessment result and evaluation efficiency are compared with those by Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the coverage rate of the reliability lower confidence limit by the new method is compared with the nominal significance level. All in all, this reliability assessment method not only improves the theory of GO method, and widens its application; but also provides a new approach for reliability assessment of complex systems, so than it can reduces costs, and improve estimating efficiency and accuracy.