基 于 数 值 模 拟 的 工 程 设 计 中 参 数 不 确 定 性 表 征方 法 研 究 综 述

Numerical simulation technology is widely used in modern engineering design. However，uncertainties are ubiquitous in simulation models：geometric parameters，working loads，environmental conditions，etc. ，which directly affect the credibility of numerical simulation results. Especially for equipment with strict requirements on performance and reliability，ignoring these uncertainties will cause potential risks. Therefore，it is of great significance to carry out uncertainty quantification in engineering design based on numerical simulation. Uncertainty characterization is not only a prerequisite for accurate uncertainty quantification and optimal design but also an important support for engineering refinement design. This paper elucidates the uncertainty factors in engineering design based on numerical simulation. Considering the manifestation and available information of the uncertainty factors，the current mainstream characteriza⁃ tion methods of parameter uncertainty according to the two categories of probabilistic and non-probabilistic character⁃ ization methods are summarized. The basic ideas，main principles，application scope，and development and applica⁃ tion of various characterization methods in engineering practice are introduced. The basic ideas of uncertainty propa⁃ gation based on uncertainty characterization results are also briefly explained. Finally，the research direction of uncer⁃ tainty characterization is prospected.