Virtual water scarcity risk in China

China's rapid economic growth has exerted great pressures on water resources. Since local water scarcity risk (LWSR, representing potential production losses in water-dependent sectors due to water scarcity) can be transmitted to downstream sectors via the economic trade system, this study measures the influences of LWSR on inter-provincial trade system using China's multi-regional input–output (MRIO) data including 31 provinces with 42 sectors in 2012. Top province-sectors in virtual water scarcity risk exports (VWSR exports, indicating the LWSR of one province being transmitted to other provinces via exports) and virtual water scarcity risk imports (VWSR imports, implying the vulnerability of the provinces to water scarcity risk in other provinces via imports) are identified. Top VWSR exporters, such as Chemical Industry in Shanghai and Anhui, Agriculture in Hebei and Heilongjiang, and Textile in Jiangsu, are important to the resilience of the national economic system to water scarcity due to the high levels of water stress in these provinces. Top VWSR importers, such as Chemical Industry in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong, Communication Equipment, Computers, and Other Electronic Devices in Jiangsu and Guangdong, and Food processing and tobaccos in Shandong, are particularly vulnerable to water scarcity in other provinces. The results show that it is necessary for provinces to cooperatively manage water resources in upstream sectors and provide references for decision-makers in highly vulnerable province-sectors to formulate strategies to mitigate virtual water scarcity risks.