Short - Term Prediction of Coke Pushing Current Peak Based on Improved ARIMA Model

Coke pushing current is an indicator to evaluate the difficulty of coke pushing operation. The higher coke pushing current is, the greater coke pushing resistance is, and the more difficult coke is to push out. Accurate prediction of current peak during future coke pushing operation can provide more time for production personnel to adjust production status and avoid difficult coke pushing in carbonization chamber. In this paper, a combination prediction model based on VMD (Variational Mode Decomposition) and improved ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models is proposed. Firstly, VMD algorithm is used to decompose time series of coke pushing current peak, de-noising data, and extracting main information of time series. Then, ARIMA model is used to predict mean change of linear elasticity and GARCH (Generalized Autore-gressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) model is introduced to predict ARIMA model residual and improve heteroscedasticity of nonlinear part of time series, and then ARIMA-GARCH model is established. Finally, predicted value is obtained by the sum of each component prediction. The experimental results show that the proposed prediction model has a high prediction accuracy in the short-term prediction of coke pushing current peak. The scheme is applied to actual coking production to guide production of coke.