Scenario analysis of CO₂ emissions from China's civil aviation industry through 2030

China's civil aviation industry has undergone a rapid expansion since the early 1980s, which has resulted in drastic increases in aviation fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions. The rapid increase in air transport is expected to continue, which poses critical challenges to this industry in terms of carbon emissions reduction. Despite its importance, an analysis of CO₂ emissions with the future development of this industry and the impacts of crucial factors is missing from the literature. To bridge this gap, this study conducts scenario analysis of CO₂ emissions from this sector through 2030 and assesses the influences from the key influential factors, including the adoption of low carbon jet fuel, the improvement of fuel intensity due to technological advancements of aircraft, and the increase of air traffic demand. The results show that the air traffic demand has the most significant influence on emissions. The technological improvements in fuel intensity and the adoption of biomass-based fuel appear unlikely to reach the ambitious targets for this industry without a disruptive technological breakthrough. A more comprehensive policy framework, including a carbon tax on jet fuel, R&D support to promote fuel efficiency and a carbon offset scheme etc., is proposed.