Who rebounds in the private transport sector? A comparative analysis between Beijing and Tokyo

This study explores the direct rebound effect, which indicates the degree of increase in travel demand caused by the increasing vehicle efficiency in the private passenger transport sector. Different from the usual effect, here the direct rebound effect is not assumed to be the same for the entire population. To determine when rebound occurs and who is suffering, two types of triggers, which may lead to different rebound effects among the population, are investigated: vehicle efficiency and travel demand. The quantile regression method is adopted to measure the rebound effect and differentiate it with respect to vehicle efficiency and travel demand. Considering that the rebound effect might have diverse performance in different cities, a comparative analysis between Beijing and Tokyo is conducted. Drawing on the data collected in a household energy consumption survey in Beijing and Tokyo in 2009, the models are estimated and the results reveal significant heterogeneity of the direct rebound effect both in Beijing and Tokyo, but with a much more complicated form in Beijing. For travelers in Beijing, rebound only occurs to those people whose cars are less efficient than 15–18 km/L, and the magnitude of the rebound effect is between 31.8% and 60.2%, varying across travelers with different travel demands. In comparison, in Tokyo, only travelers with low and medium kilometers traveled have the rebound effect, and the effect is inversely related to their travel demand, ranging between 17.1% and 92.3%. The above-identified inter-city and intra-city difference in the rebound effect could contribute to the population and a spatially specific policy scheme in practice.