What is the relationship between government response and COVID-19 pandemics? Global evidence of 118 countries

Using daily data of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) covering 118 countries from January 1 to April 13, 2021, this research examines the relationship between the government response stringency index (GRSI) and COVID-19 pandemic. The empirical results show that GRSI significantly negatively impacts confirmed cases, and the effects are especially larger around 14 to 21 days after the implementation of the government response. These results are robust through analysis with sub-samples of Asian countries and non-Asian countries, proving that public prevention policies of being isolated for 14 days and being observed for 7 days are effective. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test uncovers a statistically significant bi-directional correlation between government response stringency and COVID-19 pandemic when analyzing the full samples. In terms of the sub-samples, a bi-directional relationship exists between government response stringency and confirmed cases, while one-way causality runs only from government response stringency to deaths in Asian countries. We offer a policy implication that countries all over the world should continue to carry out public prevention policies, and governments in non-Asian countries should be more concerned about confirmed cases.