TY - GEN
T1 - Valuing the overseas mergers and acquisitions price risk of chinese oil companies
T2 - International Conference on Management and Service Science, MASS 2009
AU - Zhang, Yixiang
AU - Cheng, Jinhua
PY - 2009
Y1 - 2009
N2 - This papers analysis the Market Risk Chinese oil companies facing in overseas mergers and acquisitions (M & A) by using Historical simulation ARMA forecasting (HSAF) as the basic analysis method and the spot price of WTI crude oil as the basic analysis variables. It makes the conclusions that the VaR predictive value is much greater than the actual value under the confidence level of 97.6 percent; and, at the most time , the predictive value is 1-2 times than the actual value. This shows that China's oil companies are facing with a great deal of risk when carrying out overseas mergers and acquisitions. Finally, discuss the avoidance way from strengthening market risk assessment in host country, reducing the interest rate and exchange rate risks, determining the ways mergers and acquisitions will take carefully, establishing overseas strategic alliances, entering the region on strategic choice.
AB - This papers analysis the Market Risk Chinese oil companies facing in overseas mergers and acquisitions (M & A) by using Historical simulation ARMA forecasting (HSAF) as the basic analysis method and the spot price of WTI crude oil as the basic analysis variables. It makes the conclusions that the VaR predictive value is much greater than the actual value under the confidence level of 97.6 percent; and, at the most time , the predictive value is 1-2 times than the actual value. This shows that China's oil companies are facing with a great deal of risk when carrying out overseas mergers and acquisitions. Finally, discuss the avoidance way from strengthening market risk assessment in host country, reducing the interest rate and exchange rate risks, determining the ways mergers and acquisitions will take carefully, establishing overseas strategic alliances, entering the region on strategic choice.
KW - HSAF (historical simulation ARMA forecasting)
KW - Market risk
KW - Oil companies
KW - Overseas mergers and acquisitions (M & A)
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/73849114903
U2 - 10.1109/ICMSS.2009.5301166
DO - 10.1109/ICMSS.2009.5301166
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:73849114903
SN - 9781424446391
T3 - Proceedings - International Conference on Management and Service Science, MASS 2009
BT - Proceedings - International Conference on Management and Service Science, MASS 2009
Y2 - 20 September 2009 through 22 September 2009
ER -