The natural gas consumption and mortality nexus: A mediation analysis

Boosting natural gas consumption can contribute to a healthy China. To examine the link between natural gas consumption and mortality, this study utilizes a balanced panel dataset including 30 Chinese provinces from 2001 to 2019. The fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) method is employed to reveal the long-term cointegration, and the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (D-H) test is further applied to explore the causal relations. Moreover, this study estimates the mediation effects of particulate matter (PM_2.5) emissions on mortality. The empirical results indicate that climbing natural gas consumption can effectively reduce the mortality rate. At the national level, a 1% increase in natural gas consumption leads to a 0.02% decrease in the mortality rate. In addition, the causality analysis uncovers the existence of significant regional heterogeneity. An increase in natural gas consumption will exert a stronger impact in curbing mortality in high gross domestic product (High-GDP) or high natural gas consumption (High-NG) regions. In addition to directly affecting mortality, natural gas consumption also has an indirect impact through the mediation effects of PM_2.5 emissions. Finally, implications for policy and practice are put forward for the Chinese government pertaining to build a healthy China and advance the natural gas industry.