The credibility evaluation model of complex simulation system from the perspective of risk

Nowadays, the requirements for the credibility of complex simulation system are increasing. There are more and more challenges for simulation credibility due to increasing complexity and dynamics. Risk reflects the uncertainty factors in simulation process, which has a great effect on the credibility of simulation result. Thus, it is necessary to evaluate credibility from the perspective of risk. In this paper, the credibility of complex simulation system is considered based on risk factors. Firstly, the risk factors existing in the simulation are recognized by analyzing the simulation VV&A, and quantified by the casual strength logical algorithm in influence network. The risk factors quantification results are finally expressed in the form of marginal probability. Then, the simulation evaluation result is calculated through an analytic hierarchy process after establishing a credibility evaluation framework. Above all, the proposed method in this paper considers comprehensively the subjective credibility factors scored by experts and the objective quantified risk factors. Through risk analysis, the expected invalidation of target events are obtained, and risk factors are reflected in the complex simulation system evaluation, which is helpful for reducing risk during simulation process. Thus, the evaluation results can be used as a rule for judging whether the complex simulation system can be applied in practice, and can be used as a basis of improving credibility.