TY - JOUR
T1 - Strategic phase-down of China’s coking plants unlocks major climate and environmental co-benefits
AU - Li, Hao
AU - Lu, Xiaolong
AU - Li, Linman
AU - Lu, Bin
AU - Meng, Jing
AU - Hin Calvin, Leong Wai
AU - Lu, Xizhen
AU - Bai, Caiquan
AU - Wang, Zhaohua
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
PY - 2025/12/1
Y1 - 2025/12/1
N2 - China dominates global coking production with a 70% proportion, making the decarbonization of this highly energy- and emission-intensive industry critical for resource and environmental benefits. Despite discussions of decarbonization potential at the regional level, plant-specific co-benefits and technologically driven pathways remain unclear. Here, we integrate detailed data from 329 individual Chinese coking plants—characterizing their location, capacity, technology, and age—with national carbon neutrality scenarios to develop optimized, multi-criteria retirement pathways. Plants mainly located in Shanxi are first phased out before 2030 in a business-as-usual scenario, while retirements are proportional across provinces in the low coke production scenario. Considerable co-benefits are observed, 53.4%-57.1% of water saving and emission mitigation toward 2060. Trade-offs exist due to ascending coal use if there is higher technical penetration of dry quenching. Our analysis quantifies the distinct contributions of demand reduction (driven by steel industry transformation) and structural efficiency improvements within the coking sector itself. These results provide the first granular, data-driven roadmap for managing China’s critical coking transition, offering crucial insights for maximizing environmental gains during industrial decarbonization globally.
AB - China dominates global coking production with a 70% proportion, making the decarbonization of this highly energy- and emission-intensive industry critical for resource and environmental benefits. Despite discussions of decarbonization potential at the regional level, plant-specific co-benefits and technologically driven pathways remain unclear. Here, we integrate detailed data from 329 individual Chinese coking plants—characterizing their location, capacity, technology, and age—with national carbon neutrality scenarios to develop optimized, multi-criteria retirement pathways. Plants mainly located in Shanxi are first phased out before 2030 in a business-as-usual scenario, while retirements are proportional across provinces in the low coke production scenario. Considerable co-benefits are observed, 53.4%-57.1% of water saving and emission mitigation toward 2060. Trade-offs exist due to ascending coal use if there is higher technical penetration of dry quenching. Our analysis quantifies the distinct contributions of demand reduction (driven by steel industry transformation) and structural efficiency improvements within the coking sector itself. These results provide the first granular, data-driven roadmap for managing China’s critical coking transition, offering crucial insights for maximizing environmental gains during industrial decarbonization globally.
KW - carbon mitigation
KW - coking industry
KW - environmental co-benefits
KW - phase down
KW - plant-by-plant
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105034082410
U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/ae16be
DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/ae16be
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:105034082410
SN - 1748-9326
VL - 20
JO - Environmental Research Letters
JF - Environmental Research Letters
IS - 12
M1 - 124009
ER -