Spatiotemporal evolution of cumulative power shortage risks in China under 2 °C warming

Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme weather, which diminishes power generation potential while exacerbating peak power demand. However, existing studies predominantly focus on discrete weather shocks, often failing to capture the spatiotemporal evolution of cumulative operational risks arising from continuous supply‒demand imbalance. This study proposes a novel risk assessment framework leveraging high-resolution meteorological time series to quantify these cumulative imbalances under a 2 °C warming scenario. By integrating physical and empirical models of wind, solar, and hydropower generation with temperature-dependent demand sensitivity, the framework evaluates China's power system shortage risks in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration across 60 projected future weather years (2051–2070 from three climate models), explicitly incorporating the buffering effects of inter-regional transmission compensation. Results reveal distinct spatiotemporal patterns of risk evolution by 2060: while East and Centre China are projected to face prolonged cumulative shortages lasting up to 46 d, the North China will concentrate the highest magnitude of capacity deficits. Mitigating these operational failures necessitates a national daily energy storage capacity of 21 TW h, approximately equivalent to seven days of China's average power consumption in 2025, with the North China requiring over 15 TW h alone. This study highlights the necessity of deploying large-capacity, long-duration energy storage, such as hydrogen, combined with demand response strategies to enhance grid resilience against climate change.