Spatiotemporal and process-refined assessment of full-chain GHG emissions and mitigation potential in China’s aluminum industry

Aluminum is the non-ferrous metal with the greatest climate impact, requires accurate GHG accounting for its low-carbon transition. However, existing studies often adopt static and homogeneous emission factors, overlooking regional disparities in resource endowments and development levels. Therefore, we develop a temporal–regional–process three-dimensional GHG assessment model, using 2012–2023 panel data from 5 processes in 17 major provinces, incorporating province-specific dynamic parameters to characterize full-chain emissions and technology-driven reductions. The results demonstrate (1) electrolytic aluminum has the highest unit emissions, accounting for 73% of total emissions, with emissions concentrated in ShanDong and Inner Mongolia, with a westward shift; (2) alumina production transformation could cut national emissions by 143 million tons; (3) 2.2% annual increase in recycled aluminum supply yields substantial mitigation benefits. These findings support the development of province specific reduction targets and the key process upgrades and recycled aluminum policies.