Scenario analysis of regional carbon reduction targets in China: A case study of Beijing

We address the problem of setting realistic regional carbon reduction targets in China. Scenario analysis, combined with a regional carbon emission model, was used to evaluate whether the current government goals are realistic. We first set reasonable scenarios for factors in the model that have important effects on carbon emissions, and then forecast the carbon emissions for a given region. Reasonable regional carbon reduction goals were obtained based on these forecasts. In Beijing, eleven kinds of development scenarios were considered, and their effects on carbon reduction goals were analyzed. Results showed that future CO₂ emissions in Beijing will rise markedly, whereas carbon intensity will reduce gradually, causing the rate of carbon reduction to slow over the long term. We found that an 18% reduction in carbon intensity for Beijing during the 12th Five-Year Plan is a reasonable goal, whereas a 45%-50% reduction from 2005 to 2020 is also realistic. Moreover, the carbon intensity in Beijing could be reduced by 12%-16% during the 13th Five-Year Plan and by a further 12% during the 14th Five-Year Plan. Rapid economic growth, stable urban development, and a rising proportion of tertiary industries in Beijing all contribute to achieving its carbon reduction target.