Quantitative Analysis of Combined Damage to Area Targets Under Multiple Missile Strikes

Quickly and accurately assessing the possible damage results of large-scale targets before being hit is the basis for formulating their protection strategies. Therefore, a quantitative method for predicting the combined damage of targets under multiple strikes is proposed in this paper. Firstly, a criterion for judging large-scale targets is constructed, and the landing points where multiple missile warheads cause the maximum damage are calculated by applying the differential evolution algorithm. Secondly, according to the maximum damage landing point and the CEP (circular error probable) of each missile warhead, the target is divided into grids, and effective grids are determined. Meanwhile, the damage radii of missile warheads are obtained by an equivalent damage calculation method. Thirdly, landing points are simulated by the Monte Carlo method, and in combination with the damage power of each missile warhead, the probability of multiple missile warheads landing at different points and the corresponding damage results can be intuitively displayed. Finally, the probability damage results of a building under different missile warhead combinations are solved, which verifies the feasibility of this method. The developed method can quickly obtain the potential damage that buildings may suffer, which can guide resource allocation and defense strategies.