Planned economic growth and controlled energy demand: How do regional growth targets affect energy consumption in China?

The concept of constraints created by economic growth targets (CCEGTs) is an important way for the Chinese government to promote rapid economic development and implement macroeconomic management. The past practices of China have shown that this concept plays a crucial role in maintaining long-term economic growth. Using the data of 30 provinces from 2006 to 2018 in China, this paper examines the influence of CCEGTs on energy consumption. This study mainly draws the following three conclusions. First, the CCEGTs form a significant inverted ‘U-shaped’ relationship with both the energy consumption scale and the energy consumption structure, and they form a significant positive ‘U-shaped’ relationship with energy consumption intensity. Second, the CCEGTs affect energy consumption through environmental regulation, FDI, human capital, industrial structure upgrading, financial development, and technological progress. Third, in Eastern China, the relationship between the CCEGTs and related variables of energy consumption is consistent with that for the whole nation. In Central China, the CCEGTs form an inverted ‘U-shaped’ relationship with related variables of energy consumption. However, the inverted ‘U-shaped’ relationship is significant only with the energy consumption structure and energy consumption intensity. In Western China, the CCEGTs formed a significant positive ‘U-shaped’ relationship with both the energy consumption intensity and energy consumption scale, and they form a significant inverted ‘U-shaped’ relationship with the energy consumption structure.