Orbital-Shell Based Screening Algorithm and Collision Rapid Warning for Large-Scale Space Objects

The accelerating growth of space objects has intensified on-orbit collision risks, making rapid collision warning a fundamental prerequisite for collision avoidance decision-making. This paper presents a multi-level screening method based on orbital shells for large-scale space object collision warning. The method targets objects in Low Earth Orbits (LEO) and addresses the rapid increase in satellite numbers driven by commercial large-scale constellations. The method incorporates orbital shell allocation, geometric characteristics screening, intersection time screening, and variable-precision distance screening to efficiently identify hazardous conjunctions. It leverages Two-Line Element data and the Simplified General Perturbation model for orbit prediction. Numerical simulation results demonstrate a 90.5% reduction in computation time compared to the traditional screening method and achieve sub-second, hundred-meter precision compared to official reports. The method enhances space safety management and supports intelligent collision warning and avoidance decision-making systems.