TY - JOUR
T1 - Optimal Bayesian reliability assurance test plan for degraded products based on Wiener process
AU - Ling, Xiaoliang
AU - Ren, Aizhi
AU - Wang, Liying
AU - Qiu, Qingan
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2026 Elsevier Ltd.
PY - 2027/1
Y1 - 2027/1
N2 - Reliability assurance tests have been widely adopted to determine whether products meet a specified reliability level under a prescribed confidence level. However, for highly reliable products, insufficient failure data are often observed during assurance testing. To address this issue, this paper proposes an optimal reliability assurance test plan for degraded products using a Wiener process, accounting for unit heterogeneity and measurement error. Single and double sampling plans are constructed, with posterior producer’s and consumer’s risks defined in a Bayesian framework. Two optimization models are proposed: one minimizes the sample size or average sample number under posterior risk constraints, and the other minimizes the expected cost associated with decision uncertainty and subsequent reliability assurance activities. In addition, a dynamic strategy for adjusting the nonconforming threshold over time is investigated. Numerical analyses are conducted to compare the single and double sampling plans and to examine how reliability requirements, risk constraints, and test conditions affect the optimal designs. A case study further demonstrates the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method.
AB - Reliability assurance tests have been widely adopted to determine whether products meet a specified reliability level under a prescribed confidence level. However, for highly reliable products, insufficient failure data are often observed during assurance testing. To address this issue, this paper proposes an optimal reliability assurance test plan for degraded products using a Wiener process, accounting for unit heterogeneity and measurement error. Single and double sampling plans are constructed, with posterior producer’s and consumer’s risks defined in a Bayesian framework. Two optimization models are proposed: one minimizes the sample size or average sample number under posterior risk constraints, and the other minimizes the expected cost associated with decision uncertainty and subsequent reliability assurance activities. In addition, a dynamic strategy for adjusting the nonconforming threshold over time is investigated. Numerical analyses are conducted to compare the single and double sampling plans and to examine how reliability requirements, risk constraints, and test conditions affect the optimal designs. A case study further demonstrates the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method.
KW - Bayesian posterior risk
KW - Expected cost
KW - Reliability assurance test
KW - Sampling plan optimization
KW - Wiener process
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105048934599
U2 - 10.1016/j.ress.2026.113372
DO - 10.1016/j.ress.2026.113372
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:105048934599
SN - 0951-8320
VL - 277
JO - Reliability Engineering and System Safety
JF - Reliability Engineering and System Safety
M1 - 113372
ER -