OPEC生产配额调整能否影响油价走势？基于 动态不一致性视角

This paper examines if Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) can affect the trend of crude oil prices, using the announcements information of OPEC meetings from 1995 to 2020. First, we explore the effects of production quota adjustments on world crude oil prices in the short, medium, and long run respectively. The results do not support that OPEC can significantly affect oil prices. Further, to analyze the mechanism of oil price responses to OPEC production adjustment, this paper uses the event study method to examine there are oil price fluctuates or abnormal revenue before and after meeting announcement. The results show that oil prices have already changed before OPEC announcements. The OPEC production quota policy is similar to the monetary policy under the open economy. Based on the dynamic inconsistency theory, this paper discusses the reason why oil prices have changed in advance. It is because that OPEC production adjustment information has already been expected by the market, resulting in no changes in oil prices after meetings. This study implies that in the context of from individual production quota to collective production quota, the effect of OPEC production adjustment on world crude oil prices should not be exaggerated, which is of great significance for China to interpret and predict international oil price, and understand the negotiation power of OPEC on the economic dimension.