Lateral flight technical error estimation model for performance based navigation

Flight technical error (FTE) combined with navigation system error (NSE) is the main part of total system error (TSE) in performance based navigation (PBN). The implementation of PBN requires pre-flight prediction and en-route short-term dynamical prediction of the TSE. Once the sum of predicted lateral FTE and NSE is greater than the specified PBN value, the PBN cannot operate. Thus, accurate modeling and thorough analysis of lateral FTE are indispensible. Multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) lateral track control system of a transport aircraft is designed using linear quadratic Gaussian and loop transfer recovery (LQG/LTR) method, and the lateral FTE of a turbulence disturbed approach operation is analyzed. The error estimation mapping function of latera FTE and its bound estimation algorithm are proposed based on singular value theory. According to the forming mechanism of lateral FTE, the algorithm considers environmental turbulence fluctuation disturbance, aircraft dynamics and control system parameters. Real-data-based Monte-Carlo simulation validates the theoretical analysis of FTE. It also shows that FTE is mainly caused by turbulence fluctuation disturbance when automatic flight control system (AFCS) is engaged and would increase with escalating environmental turbulence intensity.