Integrating carbon mitigation, PM_2.5 reduction, and livelihood improvement: A non-equilibrium dynamic urban analysis in Beijing

Cities that are characterized by high populations and economic activities are carbon-intensive and highly susceptible to the effects of climate change. The majority of existing research on urban low-carbon development employs macro models to analyze influencing factors and emission pathways; however, such studies do not derive detailed descriptions about urban structure, commuting mode and residential characteristics, or capture cities’ dynamic evolution. This study develops a non-equilibrium dynamic urban model specifically for Beijing (NEDUM-Beijing) that is based on existing NEDUM-2D to capture housing construction, residential housing, and commuting patterns specific to Beijing. Using the model, this study simulates and analyzes the impacts of low-carbon development policies on urban expansion, pollution reduction, carbon mitigation, and residents’ livelihood (2025–2060). Results show that carbon tax and new energy vehicle policies have limited effect on urban form and do not substantially cause urban sprawl. A carbon tax of 100 yuan/ton appears insufficient to achieve considerable reduction in CO₂ and PM_2.5 emissions. The promotion of new energy vehicles can reduce transportation emissions slightly, with a long-term reduction ratio of 0.54%–2.62%. Restricting the residential land and floor area ratio may reduce overall housing supply, cause lower average dwelling size, and encourage suburban relocation.