Industry chain risks for the diffusion of low-carbon technologies in the cement industry

Low-carbon technologies are essential to help the cement industry move towards a low-carbon future. However, the upstream and downstream industries in the industrial chain will be directly affected by the large-scale adoption of these technologies in terms of capital, labor demand and pollutant emissions. Therefore, there is an urgent need to evaluate in advance the risk of imbalance between supply and demand in order to avoid threatening the security of the industrial chain and hindering the low-carbon transition of the cement industry. However, little research has explored the risks of promoting low-carbon technologies for cement production, let alone from an industry chain security perspective. Consequently, this study proposes a methodology integrating the Technology Life Cycle theory and the Logistic model with patent data to measure the penetration rates of low-carbon technologies lacking data. Subsequently, a variable coefficient model is constructed to evaluate the comprehensive impact of large-scale technology deployment on capital, labor demand and pollutant emissions within the relevant industries in the industrial chain under carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets. The results indicate that the total capital demand of the entire industrial chain is projected to increase by 1001.8 billion CNY between 2024 and 2030, as a consequence of the promotion of waste heat recovery and power generation technology, as well as multi-channel coal combustion technology. The net increase in the labor demand is estimated at 89.4 thousand people, and the net growth in pollution intensity is projected to be 0.57. There may be a notable risk of inadequate capital and labor for the smelting and processing of ferrous metals, while there will be a surplus of labor for the mining and washing of coal. Manufacture of metal products may be at the greatest risk of growing environmental impacts.