Industrial risk assessment for China's power sector during the low-carbon transition

Advancing low-carbon power generation technologies is essential for achieving carbon neutrality. This transition spans all stages of the industrial chain for various power generation technologies, including thermal and renewable power, and could trigger cascading risks like factor imbalances and environmental degradation. Previous studies have primarily addressed the impacts of specific technologies and the low-carbon energy use, overlooking the potential risks resulting from substitution between different power generation technologies and interconnections among industries. This study integrates China's Climate Change Integrated Assessment Model/National Energy Technology model (C³IAM/NET) with extended Input-Output table covering 11 power generation technologies to forecast the economic, social and environmental impacts of low-carbon transition in the power sector at industrial chain level. Results shows that the low-carbon transition from 2024 to 2030 will require 6.78 trillion CNY in investments, a labor demand of 4.18 million, and will produce 105,200 tons of air pollutant emissions, particularly in electrical machinery and equipment and general equipment sectors. Reducing subcritical coal power may cut 0.84 trillion CNY and 0.44 million jobs in the coal mining sector. To mitigate these risks, preemptive measures like financial support for key component producers, transfer of surplus labor, and proactive implementation of pollution control technologies are recommended.