How does urbanization affect energy consumption for central heating: Historical analysis and future prospects

The rapid development of urbanization has created high demand for central heating systems. This trend has led to an increase in energy consumption for central heating, which has made China's energy-saving transformation extremely difficult. However, the channel by which urbanization impacts and the future trends of energy consumption for central heating are still unclear. Therefore, this study employs the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method to decompose the effect of urbanization on changes in energy consumption for central heating during 2001–2019 in China. We investigate the contribution of urbanization from demographic, economic and spatial perspectives. Additionally, a scenario analysis is used to explore trends in energy consumption for central heating in different projected urbanization scenarios. The results show that urbanization has a positive impact on energy consumption for central heating, particularly in underdeveloped regions. Demographic urbanization has the strongest positive effect on energy consumption for central heating, followed by spatial urbanization and then economic urbanization. Compared with the expansion of area and economic development, population agglomeration will bring more energy consumption for central heating. The forecasting results indicate that energy consumption for central heating will reach 176–189 Mtce in 2030, which is approximately 1.4 times the current level. This work quantifies the energy consumption for central heating in the future under urbanization. The policy recommendations given at the end of the paper will provide a reference for the formulation of energy consumption for central heating.